A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."