Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
It was 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.